Pakistan India Futuristic Scenarios Essay

Scenario-I Bilateral Trade An optimistic approach in Pak-India relations: futuristic scenarios will be of bilateral trade. As both the sides seem to ease mutual tension through building new ties via trade. These hardcore rivals of South Asia have expressed their intentions to establish credible trade relations on many occasions. In view of this aspect of Pak-India relations bilateral trade is the first possible scenario to prevail between India and Pakistan. Recent peace efforts among these South Asian neighbors may lead to this possible relation between India and Pakistan. Scenario-II

Water Conflict The second possibility is of water conflict between the belligerent neighbors. Water issues between India and Pakistan have always been on the spot light in international politics. The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 between the two states, World Bank being the broker in this vital treaty settled water issues between India and Pakistan. But Pakistan still feels water insecurity due to India’s pursuit of massive projects on these Indus Basin waters. Pakistan may face an acute shortage of water in future which may lead towards a major water conflict between the two rivals.

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Due to the occupation of deadly nuclear weapons by both the states this conflict may not be allowed to escalate or could be settled again with the help of World Bank or UN. Scenario-III Settlement of all Disputes including Kashmir More like a utopian concept this scenario would be very difficult and challenging to achieve. But one cannot rule out this possibility. A mutual compromise widely supported by the general public of both the countries is attainable in future if credible and complex mutual trade relations are established.

The core issue Kashmir being the bone of contention between the two states this scenario though optimistic is less likely to be occurred. Scenario-IV Worst case scenario: Nuclear War The worst case scenario between Pakistan and India in future could be an all out nuclear war. This can bring a widespread destruction in South Asia affecting the whole world. Billions of people could perish and even more would suffer following such a catastrophe. This situation may arise from an escalated water conflict which is more likely to occur in future.